The Academy Awards can sometimes be maddeningly difficult to predict. This, for the most part, is not one of those years. These are who we think will be the winners at the Oscars – and, almost more importantly, who should be the winners. We skipped Best Animated Short, Best Live-Action Short, and Best Documentary Short, because, duh.
Best Picture
Brooklyn
The Big Short
Room
The Martian
Spotlight
The Revenant
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Academy is allowed to nominate up to ten films a year, so why Carol, Creed, Inside Out, Ex Machina, or Star Wars: The Force Awakens aren’t here is anyone’s guess. The inclusion of any of those films would achieve a great balance of blockbusters, arthouse films, and more traditional Oscar films. Alas, we’re left with this group, which all things considered is a pretty solid group of nominees. It’s been a pretty tight race so far, with Spotlight, The Big Short, and The Revenant all trading places as the frontrunner. Right now it’s The Revenant, hot off of winning a Golden Globe and a BAFTA. There’s a problem, though: The Revenant is, objectively speaking, not the best film of 2015. It doesn’t dazzle the way that Mad Max does, it doesn’t stir the way Spotlight or The Big Short do, it doesn’t devastate like Room does, and it doesn’t thrill like The Martian does. You know what people talk about when they talk about The Revenant? How hard it was to make. That doesn’t make it worthy of an Oscar. You know what? Mad Max was hard to make too, but the difficulty of production only dominates the conversation around one of those films. But let’s face it: the Academy is very likely to award a film that makes their job look admirably difficult.
Will Win: The Revenant
Should Win: Spotlight
Best Director
Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Common knowledge had this going to Ridley Scott for The Martian, but surprisingly he wasn’t even nominated. That’s a shame, because Scott successfully made a blockbuster for adults. The odds-on favorite is Inarritu, for a number of reasons. One, he’d make history as only the third man to win back-to-back Oscars for directing (after John Ford and Joseph L. Mankiewicz), and the Academy loves making history. Beyond that, the director race has been one of the more diverse fields in recent history, and Inarritu would be the fifth non-American filmmaker in a row to take home the prize (after The Artist‘s Michel Hazanavicius, Life of Pi‘s Ang Lee, Gravity‘s Alfonso Cuaron, and Birdman‘s, um, Alejandro G. Inarritu). That said, I’d much rather see this go to Miller. He built the world of Mad Max from the ground up, making it feel like a standalone film that was nevertheless a natural extension of its three predecessors. The fact that Fury Road even exists is a miracle; the fact that it’s a masterpiece is all because of Miller. If any upset is going to happen, expect if from Miller.
Will Win: Alejandro G. Inarritu
Should Win: George Miller
Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
This is the easiest-to-predict race of the night. It’s Leo’s time, after all, and luckily for him he’s nominated amongst a pretty weak field (he’d face stiffer competition from Creed‘s Michael B. Jordan or Mr. Holmes‘s Ian McKellan). Cranston is a possible dark horse, because Hollywood loves movies where filmmakers are heroes, but realistically this is Leo’s to lose.
Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio
Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio. He’s had better performances (The Aviator), but I think we’re all sick of the “Leo wants an Oscar” meme
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
This has been Larson’s all season. Blanchett is terrific, but some critics have (falsely) accused her performance as too reminiscent of her work in Blue Jasmine. Rampling had a shot at this, but then she said that the “Oscars so white” controversy is racist against white people, which pretty well doomed her. Lawrence is fine in a mostly shitty movie, and it doesn’t help her chances that hers is Joy‘s singluar nomination. This is Larson all day, and deservedly so.
Will Win: Brie Larson
Should Win: Brie Larson
Best Supporting Actor
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Christian Bale, The Big Short
I hate this category. All solid performances, but if I had my way I’d lose Bale and Rylance, who both did fine work, and replace them with Straight Outta Compton‘s Jason Mitchell and Ex Machina‘s Oscar Isaac, both minority actors who also turned in more exciting performances. (I also wouldn’t have minded seeing Jacob Tremblay nominated for Room.) That said, this is Stallone’s, hand’s down. He’s the sentimental favorite, and it doesn’t hurt that he’s genuinely great in Creed. Mark Ruffalo could possibly upset, but he’ll win one eventually if he doesn’t win this year.
Will Win: Sylvester Stallone
Should Win: Stallone, why not
Best Supporting Actor
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Rooney Mara, Carol
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Leigh would be the most unconventional choice here, which means she has no chance. She really embraced the relentless awfulness of Daisy Domergue, and in doing so freed herself of the literary pretensions of the mostly lackluster film she was in. Winslet distressingly won a Golden Globe for a performance where she couldn’t even keep her accent straight. Mara is a lead role – she actually has six minutes more screentime in Carol than does Cate Blancett. The Academy loves to award ingenues, and this is a good category for that, so expect this to go to Vikander, even though she arguably plays a lead role as well (just pretend she’s winning for Ex Machina).
Will Win: Alicia Vikander
Should Win: Jennifer Jason Leigh
Best Animated Film
Inside Out
Anomalisa
When Marnie Was There
Shaun the Sheep Movie
Boy and the World
Pixar films have only lost this award twice (can you believe Monsters Inc. lost to Shrek?), and it helps that Inside Out is legitimately one of the year’s best films.
Will Win: Inside Out
Should Win: Inside Out
Cinematography
Ed Lachman, Carol
Robert Richardson, The Hateful Eight
John Seale, Mad Max: Fury Road
Roger Deakins, Sicario
Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant
“Natural light.” That’s what the makers of The Revenant want you to remember about the film, and it worked, because Lubezki’s cinematography is one of the few parts of the film I actually remember. He’ll win, and rightfully so – he didn’t just shoot The Revenant, he composed it. It’s a remarkable feat of photography, and Lubezki will make history of his own: this will be his third cinematography Oscar in a row, after Gravity and Birdman. Deakins is a possible upset, because in spite of shooting films like Fargo and The Shawshank Redemption, he’s never won, even after thirteen nominations.
Will Win: Emmanuel Lubezki
Should Win: Emmanuel Lubezki
Best Costume Design
Sandy Powell, Carol
Sandy Powell, Cinderella
Paco Delgado, The Danish Girl
Jenny Beavan, Mad Max: Fury Road
Jacqueline West, The Revenant
This usually goes to hoity-toity costume dramas like The Young Victoria, films made for the sole purpose of winning this award. Cinderella is the closest thing on this list to that. But how cool would it be to see Mad Max take this home?
Will Will: Cinderella
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Editing
Spotlight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Big Short
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
This belongs to Mad Max‘s Margaret Sixel, a documentary film editor (and wife of director George Miller) who took an unconventional and hugely successful approach to Mad Max. What resulted is one of the most jaw-dropping feats of filmmaking in the last decade, and Sixel’s editing is hugely responsible. The Big Short might upset, but it’s not likely. Either way, this award typically goes to whatever film ultimately wins Best Picture, so it’s the best bellwether of the night.
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Original Score
Carter Burwell, Carol
John Williams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Thomas Newman, Bridge of Spies
Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight
Johann Johannsson, Sicario
I’m a huge fan of Burwell’s Carol score, with its melancholy clarinet and elegiac piano, but this is going to Morricone, who in his decades-long career has never won an Oscar. This will double as a lifetime achievement award, and what makes it even better is that The Hateful Eight‘s score is one of the film’s best parts.
Will Win: Ennio Morricone
Should Win: Ennio Morricone
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared
It must have been hard to do The Revenant: get a bunch of white guys to grow beards, then smear dirt on their faces. This belongs to Mad Max, as as far as The 100 Year Old Man is concerned, I have to ask the Academy: what the fuck is that, and are you even trying to appeal to regular moviegoers anymore?
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Original Screenplay
Spotlight
Bridge of Spies
Inside Out
Straight Outta Compton
Ex Machina
There’s no way this isn’t going to Spotlight. Also, Bridge of Spies cracks me up, because 2015 was such a good year for movies that a Spielberg film written by the Coen brothers is seen as an underdog.
Will Win: Spotlight
Should Win: Spotlight
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short
Room
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
This is one of the strongest cateogories all night. The Big Short is taking this home, no doubt, but I adored Emma Donoghue’s work on Room (her first screenplay) and Phyllis Nagy’s work on Carol (her second screenplay).
Will Win: The Big Short
Should Win: The Big Short
Best Documentary Feature
Amy
What Happened, Miss Simone?
The Look of Silence
Cartel Land
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom
This is a two-way race between two films I haven’t seen: Amy and What Happened, Miss Simone? The Academy loves documentaries about singers (look how 20 Feet From Stardom beat heavy favorite The Act of Killing), and as cynical as it sounds, Amy Winehouse’s death likely gives the documentary about her the edge.
Will Win: Amy
Should Win: ?
Best Foreign Language Film
Son of Saul (Hungary)
Mustang (France)
A War (Denmark)
Embrace of the Serpent (Colombia)
Theeb (Jordan)
This is a tough race to predict, because all of these films, mostly A War, have picked up steam recently. Embrace of the Serpent and Theeb have gained support in the last few weeks, but realistically this is between Son of Saul and Mustang. I hope Son of Saul wins, just because my fellow critic Nate hated it so much.
Will Win: Son of Saul
Should Win: ?
Best Production Design
Bridge of Spies
The Revenant
The Danish Girl
The Martian
Mad Max: Fury Road
Bridge of Spies looks gorgeous, but this should go to Mad Max. Apart from the labyrinth of Immortan Joe’s Citadel, the majority of the film takes place outside, but look how the production team made the desert and cars seem like self-contained interior spaces. The War Rig is a set unto itself, and it all adds to the stunning achievement that is Mad Max‘s world-building.
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Sound Editing
The Revenant
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Not a lot of people know what sound editing is. Hell, even some Academy voters have admitted to not knowing. I won’t pretend I can give a perfect explanation, but it’s more or less all the diegetic sound in the film, meaning this, once again, should go to Mad Max.
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Sound Mixing
The Revenant
Mad Max: Fury Road
Bridge of Spies
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
This is basically the companion to the above award; more often than not, the winners of one win the other. That said, who the hell is filling out their ballot and thinks to themselves, “Bridge of Spies had great sound mixing, but Sicario had way better than sound editing“? So weird. This, like most technical awards, belongs to Mad Max.
Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Visual Effects
Ex Machina
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Revenant
The Martian
Mad Max: Fury Road
Conventional wisdom has this going to Star Wars or The Revenant, which would make this one of the few awards The Revenant could rightfully win. The bear looked amazing, and in Star Wars, J.J. Abrams seamlessly integrated visual with practical effects. That said, my pick for this category is Ex Machina, which used visual effects to imbue its android Eve with just the right amount of humanity.
Will Win: The Revenant
Should Win: Ex Machina
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